Are Florida home prices expected to drop?
For would-be homebuyers on the sidelines, real estate experts offered a sour forecast — prices will remain steady or increase. Total home sales fell steeply for the first six months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022 in Miami-Dade and Broward, according to data from the Miami Association of Realtors.
“But if you look in the Southwest, prices are going up. You have some cities where prices are rebounding by 20% in six months.” Another area where prices will continue to rise is South Florida. “[Home prices in South Florida] are still going up, and it's one of the hottest markets,” Corcoran said.
A recent report from researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University shows that prices in the housing market are significantly overvalued.
Severe damage can lead to decreased property values after hurricanes, as homes may require significant repairs or even complete rebuilding. This can result in decreased demand and reduced market activity in affected areas.
Average Home Prices: The average median home price in Florida is $400,000, up by 3.2% YoY. In 2023, experts predict the median sale price growth to drop by roughly 4%, the first annual drop since 2012. Currently, the sale-to-list price ratio is at 97.1%, with a decline of 3.0 pt YoY as of March 2023.
Florida's housing market is expected to remain strong in 2023 and 2024, with continued demand for homes and steady price growth. However, the market is likely to stabilize as the growth rate slows down, which may lead to more balanced conditions between 2026-2027.
Real estate prices and mortgage rates are rising, and the few affordable houses that remain are being snapped up like sardines. If you want to buy in this market, now's not the time to buy. Whether or not the country enters a recession, the housing market appears to be in good shape for the foreseeable future.
South Florida's housing market is growing even more overvalued as demand stays strong and supply shortages persist, according to researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.
The year 2024 is expected to bring more stability to the housing market after a few years of uncertainty. With mortgage rates declining faster than expected, home prices are likely to remain mostly flat throughout 2024.
Tampa, where buyers are paying an average 42.56 percent premium for a home, tops the list for Florida metros followed by North Port, 41.93 percent; Cape Coral, 41.66 percent; Lakeland, 40.26 percent; Palm Bay, 39.89 percent; Jacksonville, 38.37 percent; Orlando, 38.18 percent; and Deltona, 38 percent.
What cities are overvalued in Florida?
|Metro Area||Percent Above Value|
|10. Palm Bay, Fla.||39.9%|
|11. Miami, Fla.||38.9%|
|12. Jacksonville, Fla.||38.4%|
|13. Orlando, Fla.||38.2%|
- Tampa (43.09 percent)
- North Port (42.59 percent)
- Cape Coral (42.18 percent)
- Lakeland (41.20 percent)
- Palm Bay (40.37 percent)
- Jacksonville (39.29 percent)
- Miami (38.73 percent)
- Orlando (38.66 percent)
When homes are damaged or destroyed during a hurricane, it shrinks inventory and this creates more of a seller's market. Construction teams are tied up in repairs and so new construction is hard to find. Typically, after a storm inventory is low, so demand goes up and conversely so does price.
Home prices in hurricane-ravaged areas are 5 percent higher on average than unaffected ones during the three years following a hurricane. After three years, prices return to—but do not drop below—pre-storm levels.
We find some evidence from our three measures suggesting that during the first two quarters following a major hurricane, changes in home prices and transaction volume in the affected Zip Codes experience a temporary relative decline, followed by a positive correction.
Florida's Mortgage Rates Are Decreasing
The primary reason why July 2023 presents an excellent opportunity for first-time home buyers in Florida is the favorable trend in mortgage rates, which are steadily declining and expected to remain stable.
Florida is an excellent location if you're looking for work. According to Wallethub, Florida is the 14th best state to find a job. The unemployment rate in Florida was only 2.5% in December 2022. With the national unemployment rate at 3.4%, many people move to Florida to take advantage of opportunities in their fields.
Beyond this year, the group expects mortgage rates to slide to 4.9% by Q4 2024.
Should I wait to buy a home? If you want to become a homeowner but are waiting for mortgage rates to decline, a bit of patience might be in order. Things may get better sooner than you think: Fannie Mae predicts that 30-year mortgage rates will average 6.3 percent throughout 2023 before falling to 5.7 percent in 2024.
After falling in 2023 and 2024, home prices are predicted to plateau in 2025 before rising again at just above the rate of inflation. However, due to the spike in home values from 2020 through 2022 due to record-low mortgage rates, median sales prices will take at least until 2027 to regain the highs of mid-2022.
How much will my house be worth in 2030?
The Average US Home Could be Worth $382,000 by 2030
House prices in the US have risen by 48.55% in the last ten years (from $173k to $257k) and if they continue to grow at this rate for another decade, the average US home will be worth $382k by 2030.
Florida had a search volume of 18,530 queries, reflecting its popularity as a desirable relocation destination. Known for its sunny weather, beautiful beaches, and retirement-friendly communities, Florida appeals to individuals seeking a warm climate and a relaxed lifestyle.
The report found that from 2015 to 2022, the median home price in Florida climbed from under $300,000 to $450,000. But the median household income dropped from nearly $67,000 in 2019 to under $60,000 in 2021.
That high inflation stems from the significant population growth in the state over the last two years, which has driven up demand for goods.
The average home value in Florida is around $377,000 as of 2023. This is an increase of 11.8% compared to the previous year. The average home price can vary widely depending on the location within the state, with some areas being significantly more expensive than others.
The latest monthly Housing Forecast from Fannie Mae, released July 19, has the average 30-year fixed rate remaining high at 6.8% during the third quarter of 2023, pulling back slightly to around 6.6% by year-end. The mortgage giant doesn't expect rates to dip below 6% until the fourth quarter of 2024.
According to Freddie Mac and its weekly survey, mortgage rate variance through the year's first seven months is three-quarters of a percentage point, which puts 2023 among the most stable years for mortgages in a half-century. Stable mortgage rates make planning for buying your first home easier.
Wall Street analysts are expecting earnings to stabilize in the second half of 2023, projecting a 0.2% increase in S&P 500 earnings in the third quarter and another 7.5% growth in the fourth quarter. U.S. regulators unveiled a new set of capital requirements for large U.S. banks in late July.
Despite a cooling in the real estate market nationally, Florida looks to be a seller's market for some time. More people are moving to Florida than any other state in the country. According to Zillow, two Florida cities will be among the hottest markets in the country: Tampa and Jacksonville.
What percentage of Florida homes are vacant?
The Sunshine State has the sixth largest percentage of vacant units in the U.S. Its 17.13% vacancy rate sits behind only five other states, spread across the North, South, Midwest and Alaska.
Florida's expensive housing market can be attributed to strong demand, limited inventory, desirable locations, and investor activity. These factors have led to rising home prices, creating affordability challenges for some buyers.
- Cape Coral, Florida: +43.35%
- Memphis, Tennessee: +43.35%
- Lakeland, Florida: +42.36%
- Charlotte, North Carolina: +42.19%
- Palm Bay, Florida: +41.00%
- Winston, North Carolina: +40.96%
Just over a year ago, research firm Moody's Analytics claimed that the home values in 97% of the largest housing markets in the U.S. were “overvalued” and due for a fall in house prices of between 5% to 10%.
- Palm Beach.
- Key Biscayne.
- Southwest Ranches.
- Miami Shores.
- Palmetto Bay.
Large Supply of Properties
Generally, there is typically a large supply of properties available in the housing market. This makes the houses less expensive, as there are more to choose from, and makes finding a Florida investment property easier.
Lakeland- Winter Haven, Florida. North Port- Sarasota- Bradenton, Florida. Cape Coral - Fort Myers, Florida. Port St.
The most shocking reality of the effect hurricanes have on Florida's housing market is that there really isn't one – there is no real long-term effect on the housing market. There are plenty of short term effects as the recovery progresses, but Florida's housing market recovers relatively quickly from those.
The state's housing market has seen a slowdown in the pace of rising prices, which is good news for first-time buyers. However, high mortgage rates continue to present challenges for potential buyers.
- Atlanta, Georgia: +48.57%
- Detroit, Michigan: +45.80%
- Tampa, Florida: +43.98%
- North Port, Florida: +43.49%
- Cape Coral, Florida: +43.35%
- Memphis, Tennessee: +43.35%
What will happen to Florida real estate after hurricane?
Housing activity usually declines significantly in the months immediately following a hurricane but rebounds to pre-storm levels within three to four months. Though hurricanes have always been a threat in Florida, this hasn't deterred people from living there or moving in from out of state.